目的：探讨利用医疗机构信息管理系统中普遍具有的库存上、下限设定功能，通过模型预测和控制策略来获取药品零库

存管理模式下药房药品的最优库存运行状态。方法：借鉴运营管理学、时间序列分析和定量管理决策方法，构建“多品种联合订货

模型”，即基于历史数据和相应的数学模型（固定订货间隔模型与再订货点模型，即FOI与ROP）预测药品库存的上下限，并将结果

与真实数据对比检验，在此基础上制订具体的药品采购和库存控制策略，再与模型实施前数据比较以评价其应用效果。结果：建

立的模型经误差和重现性检验，缺货率低于3.36％，其中71.24％可以有效预警；在计算机仿真运行和实际执行状态下，紧急补货

率分别降低9.33％、13.03％，断货率分别降低11.11％、27.45％，日均库存周转率分别提高30.19％、15.85％，均较模型实施前有显

著改善。结论：本模型具备良好的精度和可操作性，可以为零库存管理模式下的药品采购和库存控制提供科学合理的决策支持。

OBJECTIVE：To work out the optimal inventory levels in zero inventory management mode through model prediction

and control strategy，by using the inventory upper & lower limits settings generally available in the information management

system of health care institutions. METHODS：“Multi-varieties joint ordering model”was constructed by referring to operations

management，time series analysis and quantitative approach to decision-making，that is，to make a prediction of upper & lower limits

on medicine inventory based on historical data and applicable mathematical models（fixed order interval model and re-order model，

i.e. FOI and ROP），and compared with real results；based on above，specific medicine procurement and inventory control strategies

would be developed and an evaluation of the application effects would be made. RESULTS：The error test and reproducibility

test exhibited that the out-of-stock ratio remained under 3.36％，of which 71.24％ could be effectively alarmed；under computer

simulation and practical operation，the instant replenishment rate reduced by 9.33％ and 13.03％，OOS ratio down by 11.11％ and

27.45％，and average daily inventory turnover rate up by 30.19％ and 15.85％ respectively，all showing remarkable improvements

compared to before the implementation of the mode. CONCLUSIONS：This model is of favorable accuracy and operability，therefore

it can lay foundation for rational and well-founded decisions in medicine procurement and inventory control in zero inventory

management mode.