卡匹色替联合氟维司群二线治疗HR+/HER2-晚期乳腺癌的成本-效用分析
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篇名: 卡匹色替联合氟维司群二线治疗HR+/HER2-晚期乳腺癌的成本-效用分析
TITLE: Cost-utility analysis of capivasertib combined with fulvestrant in the second-line treatment of HR+/HER2- advanced breast cancer
摘要: 目的 从我国卫生体系角度,评价卡匹色替联合氟维司群二线治疗激素受体阳性(HR+)/人表皮生长因子受体2阴性(HER2-)晚期乳腺癌的经济性。方法利用CAPItello-291临床试验公布的临床数据构建分区生存模型,以成本和质量调整生命年(QALYs)作为模型产出指标,以增量成本-效果比(ICER)作为模型评价指标,以3倍2024年我国人均国内生产总值(GDP)作为意愿支付阈值(WTP),分析卡匹色替联合氟维司群方案对比氟维司群单药方案治疗HR+/HER2-晚期乳腺癌的经济性,并进行敏感性分析和卡匹色替分别降价50%、60%、70%、95%时的情境分析。结果基础分析结果提示,与氟维司群单药治疗方案相比,卡匹色替联合氟维司群的ICER为843038.46元/QALY,高于WTP(287247元/QALY)。单因素敏感性分析结果提示,对ICER影响排名前3位的因素分别是疾病进展期效用值、卡匹色替价格和疾病无进展状态效用值。概率敏感性分析结果证实基础分析结果稳健。情境分析结果提示,即使卡匹色替降价95%,卡匹色替联合氟维司群治疗方案在目前的WTP下仍不具有经济性。结论在3倍2024年我国GDP的WTP下,相比于氟维司群单药治疗方案,卡匹色替联合氟维司群二线治疗HR+/HER2-晚期乳腺癌不具有经济性。
ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVE To evaluate the cost-utiliby of capivasertib combined with fulvestrant for the second-line treatment of hormone receptor-positive/human epidermal growth factor receptor-2-negative (HR+/HER2-) advanced breast cancer from the perspective of the Chinese healthcare system. METHODS A partitioned survival model was constructed using clinical data from the CAPItello-291 trial. Costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were used as the output indicators of the model, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was used as the evaluation indicator of the model. Using three times the per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of China in 2024 as the willingness-to-pay threshold (WTP), this study analyzed the cost-utility of capivasertib combined with fulvestrant versus fulvestrant monotherapy in the treatment of HR+/HER2- advanced breast cancer, and conducted sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis under conditions where the price of capivasertib was reduced by 50%, 60%, 70% and 95%, respectively. RESULTS The results of the basic analysis showed that compared with the fulvestrant monotherapy regimen, the ICER of capivasertib combined with fulvestrant was 843 038.46 yuan/QALY, which was higher than the WTP(287 247 yuan/QALY). The one-way sensitivity analysis revealed that the top three factors with the most substantial influence on ICER were the utility value in the progression disease state, the price of capivasertib, and the utility value inthe progression free survival state. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis demonstrated the robustness of the basic analysis results. Scenario analysis revealed that even if the price of capivasertib were reduced by 95%, capivasertib combined with fulvestrant did not exhibit cost-effectiveness at the current WTP. CONCLUSION At a WTP of three times China’s GDP per capita in 2024, compared to fulvestrant monotherapy, capivasertib combined with fulvestrant as the second-line treatment for HR+/ HER2- advanced breast cancer is not cost-effective.
期刊: 2025年第36卷第24期
作者: 张扬;康朔;王晓晖;侯奕冰;付祥霞;刘焕龙
AUTHORS: ZHANG Yang,KANG Shuo,WANG Xiaohui,HOU Yibing,FU Xiangxia,LIU Huanlong
关键字: 卡匹色替;氟维司群;晚期乳腺癌;激素受体;人表皮生长因子受体2;分区生存模型;成本-效用分析
KEYWORDS: capivasertib; fulvestrant; advanced breast cancer; hormone receptor; human epidermal growth factor receptor-2;
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