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药物经济学评价中Markov模型的周期内校正方法探讨
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| 篇名： | 药物经济学评价中Markov模型的周期内校正方法探讨 |
| TITLE： | Discussion on Within-cycle Correction of Markov Model in Pharmacoeconomic Evaluation |
| 摘要： | 目的：为减少药物经济学研究中Markov模型的误差提供参考。方法：参考国外相关文献，解释Markov模型误差产生的原理，并介绍常用的半周期法、梯形法、Simpson’s1/3法、Simpson’s3/8法、生命表法及其在Excel、TreeAge软件中的实现方法。结果与结论：Markov模型因离散化过程而产生误差，使用周期内校正方法可校正这一误差。半周期法是最常用的校正方法，是通过增加第1周期一半的结果并减去最后1周期一半的结果进行校正；梯形法的校正是以区间首尾端点值的均值代表该区间，以直角梯形的面积作为累计的结果；Simpson’s1/3法和Simpson’s3/8法则在梯形法的基础上在区间中插值并以插值点所在的连续曲线代表整个曲线；寿命表法的校正中，生存人年数为该年龄组的组距与该年龄组和下一年龄组尚存人数的均值的乘积，生存人年数则为各年龄组生存总人年数的总和。在Excel中，可根据方法原理设置函数来实现校正；而在TreeAge软件中，可通过设置InitRwd、IncrRwd、FinalRwd的函数表达式来实现校正。在使用Markov模型进行药物经济学评价时，对于周期校正方法的选择，若从建模的易用性、适用情形的广泛性等角度出发，建议使用梯形法；从结果的精确性角度出发，则建议使用Simpson’s1/3法，以提高Markov模型的准确度。 |
| ABSTRACT： | OBJECTIVE：To pro vide reference for reducing the error of Markov model in pharmacoeconomic evaluation. METHODS：Referring to foreign literatures ，the errors in Markov model were explained. The commonly used correction methods were introduced ：half-cycle correction ，trapezoidal rule ，Simpson’s 1/3 rule，Simpson’s 3/8 method and life table method and their implementation in Excel and TreeAge software. RESULTS & CONCLUSIONS ：The error of Markov model was caused by the discretization process and could be corrected by the within-cycle correction methods. Half-cycle correction ，was the most commonly used correction method and could be corrected by adding half of the results of the first cycle and subtracting half of the results of the last cycle. By trapezoidal rule ，the interval was represented by the mean value of the first end point value of the interval ，and the area of right trapezoid was the cummulative result. Simpson’s 1/3 rule and Simpson ’s 3/8 rule took another point in the interval on the basis of trapezoidal correction and the continuous curve where these three points were represented the whole curve. By life table method ，the person-years of survival was the product of the group distance of the age group and the mean value of the number of survivors of the age group and the next age group ，and the total person-years of survival was the sum of person-years of survival of each age group. In Excel ，the fuction was set according to the method principle to realize the correction ；in Tree Age software，the function expression of Init Rwd ，Inor Rwd and Final Rwd were set to realize the correction. When using Markov model for pharmacoeconomic evaluation ，if the selection of periodic correction method is based on the ease of modeling and the universality of application ，the trapezoid rule method is recommended ；based on the accuracy of results ，it is suggested to use Simpson’s 1/3 method，so as to improve the accuracy of Markov model. |
| 期刊： | 2020年第31卷第08期 |
| 作者： | 沃田，陈磊，席晓宇 |
| AUTHORS： | WO Tian，CHEN Lei，XI Xiaoyu |
| 关键字： | 药物经济学；Markov模型；周期内校正；半周期法；梯形法；Simpson’s 1/3 法；Simpson’s 3/8法；寿命表法 |
| KEYWORDS： | Pharmacoeconomics；Markov model ；Within-cycle correction ；Semi-cycle correction ；Trapezoidal rule ；Simpson’s |
| 阅读数： | 1990 次 |
| 本月下载数： | 97 次 |
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